A pensions forecast in the UK comes from GOV.UK for the State Pension and, for other pensions, a yearly statement, an online account or the scheme.
No single document adds everything up for you, so a forecast of what you will get is really a few separate requests. At 50 or over with a defined contribution pot, you can also get a Pension Wise appointment, a service MoneyHelper calls "free, impartial and backed by government". Several pots, tax and health can complicate the picture. When yours do, an FCA-authorised adviser firm may ring or write, free of charge, following your request in the form on this page.
Where each forecast comes from
Each kind of pension is forecast by a different body, on a different basis.
| Pension | Who produces the forecast | How you get it |
|---|---|---|
| State Pension | DWP | GOV.UK service, HMRC app, post or phone |
| Workplace or personal pension (defined contribution) | Your provider or scheme | Yearly statement, online account, or a request to the provider |
| Final salary or other defined benefit pension | Your scheme | A request to the scheme or its administrator |
| A pension you have lost track of | The scheme, once traced | See how to find a lost pension |
If you are unsure which type you hold, MoneyHelper says you can "use our tool to find out your pension type or ask your provider" (MoneyHelper, How to calculate your estimated pension and retirement income, archived copy, accessed 18 October 2026). Free calculators are compared in the pension calculator guide, and what to aim for is in how much pension you need.
Your State Pension forecast
The State Pension has its own official forecast, from DWP through GOV.UK's Check your State Pension forecast (accessed 18 October 2026). Online is the fastest route: you sign in, creating sign-in details if you have none, and may be asked to prove your identity; the same forecast is in the HMRC app. If your State Pension age is more than 30 days away, GOV.UK also offers two slower routes: the BR19 application form by post, or a call to the Future Pension Centre on 0800 731 0175, which posts the forecast out. Anyone already receiving the State Pension, or deferring it, cannot use the online service; GOV.UK sends them to the Pension Service in the UK or the International Pension Centre from abroad.
Each step, and what the forecast shows, is in checking your State Pension forecast; how far to trust the figure is in how accurate the forecast is, and how National Insurance years build it in the State Pension guide.
Workplace and personal pensions: the yearly statement
A workplace pension provider sends a statement every year, and GOV.UK adds: "You can also ask them for an estimate of how much you’ll get when you start taking your pension pot." (GOV.UK, Workplace pensions: Managing your pension, accessed 18 October 2026.) MoneyHelper says a statement "will usually tell you" what the pension is worth now, what it is estimated to pay, and the age or date that estimate assumes: your normal pension age, or a selected retirement date if you have given one. The latest is usually in your online account or your paperwork; otherwise, ask the provider.
The statement is a legal requirement in England, Wales and Scotland. Under regulation 17 of the Occupational and Personal Pension Schemes (Disclosure of Information) Regulations 2013, information about a member's money purchase benefits "must be given" to a member with those rights, unless the scheme has lost touch with them (legislation.gov.uk, regulation 17, accessed 18 October 2026). It is due within 12 months of the end of each scheme year for an occupational scheme, and for a personal pension within 12 months of the date you joined or the first contribution, and of each anniversary of that date. The projected figure itself can be left out in a few set cases, such as for a member already drawing benefits from the scheme.
What the estimate on the statement is built on
The retirement figure is an illustration built to a set method, not a promise. Schedule 6 of the same regulations requires it to be worked out from "the relevant guidance" and a short list of assumptions; regulation 2 defines that guidance as "AS TM1: Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations", from the Financial Reporting Council (legislation.gov.uk, regulation 2). The FRC says AS TM1 "specifies the actuarial assumptions and methods to be used in the calculation of Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations (SMPIs)" (FRC, AS TM1).
The legislation also decides what the statement must say about its own limits. It must state that the illustration "does not represent any promise or guarantee", that "general assumptions have been made", and that amounts "are expressed in today's prices". It must also give the retirement date used. Unless no further contributions are due or expected, the figure assumes payments into the pot carry on until that date. And it must warn that the pension paid "will depend on considerations (including the performance of investments and the cost of buying an annuity at the time the pension becomes payable) which may be different from any assumptions made" (legislation.gov.uk, Schedule 6).
Reading the figure
MoneyHelper says a defined contribution pension "can rise and fall in value until you take the money": the result turns on contributions, investment returns, charges and "when and how you choose to take the money". The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you could get back less than was paid in, so a projection is one possible path, not a prediction. The estimate also "is usually based on" buying an annuity at the scheme's normal pension age, MoneyHelper says, so "you might get a different amount if you take the money earlier, later or take it in a different way"; your options at retirement sets out the alternatives.
If the retirement date or the payments a statement assumes are not what you intend, or you hold several pots to weigh against each other, an FCA-authorised adviser can check the figures against your own circumstances; a short message through the form on this page asks one to be in touch.
Online forecasts from your provider
A projection in your provider's online account, or one you build there, may not follow the yearly statement's rules; the FCA's are in COBS 13.5 and COBS 13 Annex 2 (accessed 18 October 2026). Where a firm communicates a projection for a product you already hold, COBS 13.5.1R says it "must include a standardised deterministic projection". Annex 2 says such a projection must "include a projection of benefits at the lower, intermediate and higher rates of return", be "rounded down" and "show no more than three significant figures". For personal pensions it must also be "in real terms", with an explanation of "why price inflation has been taken into account and that price inflation reduces the worth of all savings and investments". That is why you may see a low, a middle and a high case. The annex does not apply to a projection "consistent with the statutory money purchase illustration requirements", the yearly statement described above.
Not every online figure falls under those rules. COBS 13.5 does not apply to a firm that provides what the FCA calls an "interactive pension simulation" (COBS 13.5.1B). Nor does it apply, says the FCA's guidance in COBS 13.5.1C(1), dated 25 September 2026, where a projection is "generated using generic assumptions" rather than the information needed to follow Annex 2; firms "should present such a projection with a clear statement that it has been prepared using generic assumptions that may not reflect the client’s situation". Look for that statement on any online tool: a generic result is a rough guide to scale, not a reading of your own pot. Where an online figure and the yearly statement differ, the statement is the one built on the legal method above.
Final salary and other defined benefit pensions: ask the scheme
A final salary pension is a defined benefit pension: it pays a set income rather than a pot. MoneyHelper says the scheme's estimate "is usually based on" the benefits you have built up so far, claimed at the scheme's normal pension age. If you are still working for the employer, "your estimate might also show how much you could get if you continued working until the scheme is designed to pay out". How these schemes work is in the final salary pension guide.
You do not need to wait for a letter. Regulation 16 of the 2013 regulations says that where a member has benefits that are not money purchase and "the member requests that information", the scheme must provide it "as soon as practicable but no more than two months after the date the request is made" (legislation.gov.uk, regulation 16). The duty does not arise if the scheme gave you that information under the same regulation in the 12 months before your request or, for someone still building up a public service pension, if a benefit information statement under the Public Service Pensions Act 2013 came in that time. For a deferred member, the information includes "the amount of the member's benefits and survivors' benefits payable from the date benefits are payable" and a summary of how they are calculated (legislation.gov.uk, Schedule 5).
Questions people ask about pension forecasts
What State Pension will I get?
Your own amount is on your GOV.UK forecast. For comparison, the full new State Pension is £241.30 a week in the 2026/27 tax year, according to DWP's benefit and pension rates; what you get depends on your National Insurance record, as the State Pension guide explains.
Does a pension forecast include the tax-free lump sum?
It can. The 2013 regulations let a money purchase illustration "take account of a lump sum", and MoneyHelper says a defined benefit statement "should also show" whether a separate lump sum is building up or how far your income would fall if you took one. If yours does not say, ask the provider or scheme which basis it used; the rules on the lump sum itself are in the tax-free lump sum guide.
Can I see all my pensions in one place?
That is what pensions dashboards are for: DWP's guidance on connection (updated 6 August 2025) says they will let people see their pensions information, State Pension included, free and online in one place. Whether one is open to you yet is for the Pensions Dashboards Programme to say; what a pensions dashboard is covers the idea. Meanwhile the forecast and statements above are the route, and a pot you have lost touch with can be traced (finding a lost pension).
How do I get a forecast from Aviva, Nest, Scottish Widows or another provider?
The routes are the same whichever firm runs the pot: the yearly statement, the online account, or asking the provider for an estimate. Every provider's yearly statement is worked out by the same statutory method, so where your pots sit with different firms, the statements are the figures that compare most closely; online tools may each use their own assumptions.
What if someone offers to forecast or trace my pensions for me?
Be wary of any approach you did not ask for. An unexpected offer of a free pension review is, says the FCA, "likely to be a scam", and it says the safest answer to a cold call about your pension is to hang up; its pension scams page has more. Every route on this page starts with you contacting GOV.UK, your provider or your scheme.
Putting your forecasts together
With the State Pension forecast, each pot's statement and any scheme estimate in hand, line them up on the same terms: retirement age, price basis, and whether each figure is a yearly income or a pot. MoneyHelper's own steps then move on to "any other retirement income you might have"; what counts as pension income helps there, how long your pension will last turns a pot into years, and planning for retirement in the UK covers what can be done about a shortfall.
Pension Wise, free at 50 or over for anyone with a UK-based defined contribution pension, explains the ways of taking it. For the forecasts to be weighed against your tax, health and family plans, an FCA-authorised adviser firm picks up enquiries left in the form on this page. The introduction costs nothing; advice, if given, is the adviser's and not this site's, and the decisions stay yours.